2025 Marine Market Outlook

The Canadian marine insurance market is expected to remain stable in 2025, with insurers focusing on prudent risk selection and underwriting discipline. Additional capacity is entering the market on some marine lines sparking competition and more favorable conditions for policyholders. However, insurers are remaining vigilant regarding global developments and their potential impact on the domestic market which is tempering the return to soft market conditions.

Highly volatile trade environments leading to anxiety around return on investments coupled with rising claim costs and social inflation (particularly related to US exposures) may lead underwriters to push for low single-digit rate increases. Certain higher risk marine business segments are subject to greater scrutiny than others.

2025 Expected Average Rate Increase/Decrease

Cargo: -5% to 0%

Hull and Machinery: -2.5% to +2.5%

P&I: 0% to +7%

Marine Liability: 0% to +2.5%

Excess Marine Liability: 0% to +4%

Marine Cargo:

In 2023, global Cargo insurance premiums reached $22.1 billion, marking a 6.2% increase from the previous year, reflecting continued expansion in global trade. Marine cargo insurance in Canada makes up approximately 50% of all gross written Marine Insurance premiums.

The cargo insurance market is currently experiencing increased competition as insurers who had previously withdrawn from the sector are re-entering, drawn by the now favorable market condition, and existing markets looking to increase their current capacity levels. Although the cargo space is experiencing softening conditions, providing comprehensive exposure data and clearly distinguishing risks from others in their industry is still essential for obtaining competitive coverage terms and rates. Cargo owners should be reminded that price isn’t the only factor to consider in today’s market and with more capacity available it’s important to carefully evaluate which carrier is taking on the risk.

 Although the favorable market conditions, insurers are closely reviewing their stock throughput portfolios to control risk accumulation in regions prone to catastrophic events. Losses in marine cargo due to extreme weather events are no longer confined to specific areas and are increasingly widespread, affecting both stationary and in-transit goods. Additionally, incidents involving containers lost at sea and onboard fires are becoming more frequent. The concentration of risk on individual ships, ports, and other coastal facilities remains a concern.

As trade relations between Canada and the United States evolve, potential changes to tariff policies are drawing increased attention from the marine insurance industry.